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Futagami, Satoshi; Yamano, Hidemasa; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Ujita, Hiroshi*
Proceedings of proceedings of PSAM 2023 Topical Conference AI & Risk Analysis for Probabilistic Safety/Security Assessment & Management, 8 Pages, 2023/10
To create an innovation for efficient and effective social implementation of nuclear power plant PRA, automatic construction tool for fault tree architecture and automatic failure judgment tool to construct reliability database are developed by using AI and digitization technology. This paper describes overall development plan of PRA methodology using the AI technology and the progress of automatic FT creation tools development.
Narukawa, Takafumi; Hamaguchi, Shusuke*; Takata, Takashi*; Udagawa, Yutaka
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2022 (ASRAM 2022) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2022/12
Sahboun, N. F.; Matsumoto, Toshinori; Iwasawa, Yuzuru; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 15 Pages, 2021/10
Kubo, Kotaro; Tanaka, Yoichi
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 13 Pages, 2021/10
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is extensively used, e.g., in periodical safety review and the reactor oversight process, in nuclear regulation systems to improve the safety of nuclear power plants; however, one limitation of classical PRA is the handling of temporal information such as system failure and core damage timings. To resolve this limitation, the dynamic PRA method has been developed and applied for multiple safety issues; however, its improvement is accompanied by considerable computational costs. In this study, we applied the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to dynamic PRA with the expectation of reduction in computational cost. In particular, to estimate core damage timing, a PCE-based surrogate model was developed. Then, the surrogate model was applied to dynamic PRA to calculate the conditional core damage probability and core damage timing. Consequently, applying the PCE might efficiently perform these analyses without considerable reduction in accuracy.
Shimada, Kazumasa; Iijima, Masashi*; Watanabe, Masatoshi*; Takahara, Shogo
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 17 Pages, 2021/10
The radiation doses received by the off-site responders in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident were assessed. Atmospheric dispersion simulation was conducted with the source term of the previous research to calculate the atmospheric concentration and ground surface deposition in the municipalities where off-site responders actives. The external exposure dose from cloudshine and groundshine, the internal exposure dose due to inhalation of radioactive plume and resuspended radio nuclei, and the temporal and spatial distribution within each municipality were assessed. As a result of comparing the assessed values of the external exposure dose with the measured values of the personal dosimeter, the measured values were within the assessed range. As a result of our assessment with internal dose exposure, if the exposures occurred without protective measures, the potential daily effective dose in the period between 12 and 31 March 2011 were several tens mSv per day or more in the relatively high dose area. Therefore, to keep the doses received by the responders below the reference level of 20 mSv recommended by the ICRP, it is necessary to ensure that the protective measures for internal exposures such as masks are taken, and to manage the time spent for their activity at least daily.
Nishino, Hiroyuki; Onoda, Yuichi; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2021/10
The objective of this study is to develop an effectiveness evaluations technology of the measures for improving resilience of nuclear structures against excessive earthquake by introducing the fracture control concept. After analyzing event tree in previous studies of PRA against earthquake, this study identified sequences of protected loss of heat sink and loss of reactor level induced from excessive earthquake as accident sequences in which improving resilience of nuclear structures become effective. This study focused on important components for safety (e.g., reactor vessel, air coolers, pipes of primary loops in decay heat removal systems, etc.) to be used as countermeasures for improving the resilience. Core damage frequency is selected as an index in evaluating effectiveness of the measures for improving the resilience. Seismic safety margin of the components is assumed to be enlarged when the measures for improving the resilience with the fracture control concept are implemented. Through the trial calculation, reduction effect of the core damage frequency was quantified. The result showed that the measures for improving the resilience are significantly effective for decreasing the core damage frequency in excessive earthquake twice higher than a design basis ground motion. The general concept for the effectiveness evaluations technology was formulated.
Onoda, Yuichi; Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2021 (ASRAM 2021) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2021/10
The effectiveness evaluations technology of the measures for improving resilience by applying a fracture control concept under ultra-high temperature conditions has developed for prototype sodium-cooled fast reactor Monju as a model plant, and the trial evaluation has conducted using this technology in this paper. The important accident sequences to which the fracture control concept is expected to be applied under ultra-high temperature condition are identified by investigating the results of the existing researches of level-2 probabilistic risk assessment for Monju. Accident sequences categorized in protected loss of heat sink and loss of reactor level are both identified as such important accident sequences which has the potential to prevent core damage. This study has developed the technology to evaluate the effectiveness of improving resilience, where the headings which stand for success or failure of the measures to improve resilience are introduced into the event tree, the branch probability of them is set, and the effectiveness of improving resilience is expressed as the reduction of core damage frequency. As a result of the trial evaluation of the effectiveness for the measures to improve resilience, it is confirmed that core damage frequency can be reduced by applying fracture control concept. The branch probability of the measures to improve resilience proposed in this study is tentatively assigned based on the assumption. This value is expected to be quantified by the forthcoming analyses of the integrity for the reactor vessel structure at ultra-high temperature. The technology developed in this study will be applied for the evaluation of improving resilience of the next generation sodium-cooled fast reactor.
Shimada, Kazumasa; Sakurahara, Tatsuya*; Reihani, S.*; Mohagehgh, Z.*
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 12 Pages, 2020/11
Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (Level 3 PRA) and Traffic simulation were integrated to evaluate the effects of evacuation more realistically on radiation exposure to residents in the offsite consequence analysis. In this study, WinMACCS was used as the Level 3 PRA code. As a test case, the Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant(NPP) site, which was targeted by the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyzes (SOARCA) issued by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2017, was adopted. The MultiAgent Transport Simulation (MATSim) was used to simulate the evacuation of a Sequoyah NPP's 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone. For the transportation route choice, the route where each vehicle chooses the shortest distance and the route where the total evacuation time is shortened by iterative calculation were chosen. In the calculation of MACCS, the source term with the shortest release start time in the SOARCA report was adopted. As an example of the results, the radiation dose of the residents when the evacuation time was optimized was reduced by about 30% from the dose when the shortest distance was selected. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was conducted, and it was shown that the evacuation preparation time was the largest factor that contributed to the radiation dose to residents.
Kubo, Kotaro; Zheng, X.; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Jang, S.*; Takata, Takashi*; Yamaguchi, Akira*
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 11 Pages, 2020/11
Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) enables a more realistic and detailed analysis than classical PRA. However, the trade-off for these improvements is the enormous computational cost associated with performing a large number of thermal-hydraulic (TH) analyses. In this study, based on machine learning (ML), we aim to reduce these costs by skipping the TH analysis. For the ML algorithm, we selected a support vector machine; we built it using a high-fidelity/high-cost detailed model and low-fidelity/low-cost simplified model. As a result, the computational costs could be reduced by approximately 80% without significantly decreasing the accuracy under the assumed conditions.
Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Naruto, Kenichi*; Gondai, Yoji; Yamamoto, Masaya; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 12 Pages, 2020/11
The objective of this study is to evaluate the occurrence frequency of accident sequences which may lead to core damage if provisions in defense in depth (DiD) level 1 to 3 are the only safety measures. For this objective, the existing safety measures in this SFR are categorized into those for the DiD level 1-3 and those for the DiD level 4. The safety measures for the DiD level 1-3 are as follows; (1) main reactor shutdown system, (2) double boundary structure in the primary main and auxiliary cooling system and the reactor vessel, which maintain the reactor coolant level sufficient for coolant circulation in the primary main cooling system, (3) decay heat removal in a forced circulation mode. Accident sequences are categorized into typical SFR-specific groups and station blackout (SBO) in this study. The SFR-specific groups are unprotected loss of flow, unprotected transient over power, unprotected loss of heat sink, loss of reactor level, and protected loss of heat sink (PLOHS). The occurrence frequency of these accident sequence groups was quantified to identify major contributors. As the result, PLOHS excluding SBO was indicated as the dominant contribution of 80% or more in the all accident sequence groups and the annual occurrence frequency of the PLOHS was 1.0E-4 order of magnitude. For the PLOHS, loss of offsite power (LOOP) was indicated as major contribution of 30% in initiating events. In the accident sequences of the PLOHS initiated from LOOP, a dominant sequence was combination of common cause failure of primary pumps in the main cooling system and failure-to-start of the auxiliary cooling system after LOOP. The second dominant contribution (15% or more) in the all accident sequence groups is PLOHS in SBO (i.e., decay heat removal failure due to SBO). Each of the other accident sequence groups was 1%.
Matsumoto, Toshinori; Iwasawa, Yuzuru; Ajima, Kohei*; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2020 (ASRAM 2020) (Internet), 10 Pages, 2020/11
The probability of ex-vessel debris coolability under the wet cavity strategy is analyzed. The first step is the uncertainty analyses by severe accident analysis code MELCOR to obtain the melt condition. Five uncertain parameters which are relating with the core degradation and transfer process were chosen. Input parameter sets were generated by LHS. The analyses were conducted and the conditions of the melt were obtained. The second step is the analyses for the behavior of melt under the water by JASMINE code. The probabilistic distribution of parameters are determined from the results of MELCOR analyses. Fifty-nine parameter sets were generated by LHS. The depth of water pool is set to be 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 m. Debris height were compared with the criterion to judge the debris coolability. As the result, the success probability of debris cooling was obtained through the sequence of calculations. The technical difficulties of this evaluation method are also discussed.
Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Komagamine, Hiroshi*; Munakata, Masahiro
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2019 (ASRAM 2019) (USB Flash Drive), 7 Pages, 2019/09
no abstracts in English
Takahara, Shogo; Watanabe, Masatoshi*
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2019 (ASRAM 2019) (USB Flash Drive), 9 Pages, 2019/09
Internal exposure from ingestion pathway is one of most concerned contributor to the received doses to the public after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident. In the present study, we developed the dose prediction model taking into account the ecological half-lives of radionuclides in foodstuffs and the reduction effects on concentration of radionuclides in cooking-process based on the experiences and the latest insights of the FDNPP accident. From comparison of the retrospective assessment results in Fukushima city between our models and the previous models (market bascket, duplicate, sewer sludge method), no contradictions were observed. In addition, it was found that the potential annual effective doses, which were assessed using the developed model, is several tens micro Sieverts in the first year after the FDNPP accident, and subsequent years the doses is also not exceeding several micro Sv for the future in Fukushima city.
Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Komagamine, Hiroshi*; Munakata, Masahiro
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2018 (ASRAM 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 8 Pages, 2018/10
no abstracts in English
Tamaki, Hitoshi; Ishikawa, Jun; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2018 (ASRAM 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 6 Pages, 2018/10
In the accidents at Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station, Tsunami caused loss of electric power supply and this event led to core melt and failure of Containment vessel. Finally, fission products were released to the environment. Currently, the activities for understanding of accident progressions are carried out based on the measured data during the accident, accident progression analysis using integrated severe accident analysis codes and investigation of inside of reactor buildings and containment vessels. On the other hand, there are some research activities with combination of accident progression analysis and accident consequence analysis. In Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), the research project of combination of these analyses using the computational simulation codes has been started. The results obtained from the combination analysis are expected to have broad width of uncertainty because of many uncertainty factors in this combined analysis. In order to perform the analysis efficiently, sensitivity analysis for failure location on containment vessel and its failure size were carried out by THALES2/KICHE developed by JAEA at first. This analysis was performed on unit 1, since it was the first plant to release radioactive materials to the environment during the accident and its consequence had no effect from other plants. The authors focused on the failure of containment vessel head flange, penetration seal and vacuum breaker pipe, and possibility of partial open of vent valve based on the investigations of reactor building inside performed by TEPCO. This paper presents the results obtained from this sensitivity analysis.
Ishikawa, Jun; Zheng, X.; Shiotsu, Hiroyuki; Sugiyama, Tomoyuki; Maruyama, Yu
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2018 (ASRAM 2018) (USB Flash Drive), 6 Pages, 2018/10
Suzuki, Mitsutoshi
Risk Assessment, p.133 - 151, 2018/02
A integrated risk assessment could be developed to promote synergism between safety, security, and safeguards (3S). One of the synergies of the integrated 3S risk assessment is a 3S by Design approach for new nuclear facilities. In safety, the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been developed to estimate the frequency of severe accident using the basic event frequency. Because of recent concern about nuclear security, a vital area identification method based on the ETs/FTs has been explored to protect vital areas of nuclear power plants against sabotage. The different difficulty in applying risk assessment to safeguards is determining the initiation of diversion of nuclear material and misuse, because the diversion of nuclear material and misuse of technology are induced by the motivation of states and intentional acts of facility operation. In this chapter, a balance among 3S risk would be explored to pursue an optimal and a cost-effective management.
Hirouchi, Jun; Takahara, Shogo; Komagamine, Hiroshi*; Watanabe, Masatoshi*; Munakata, Masahiro
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2017 (ASRAM 2017) (USB Flash Drive), 11 Pages, 2017/11
no abstracts in English
Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2017 (ASRAM 2017) (USB Flash Drive), 3 Pages, 2017/11
Forest fire hazard assessment methodologies using a logic tree have been applied for the evaluation of combination hazard curves of a forest fire with lightning as an initiator of a forest fire and with a strong wind being independent from a forest fire. The complex shape of the combinational hazard curve of forest fire and lighting is due to that both lightning and high velocity wind tend to appear under unstable weather conditions, and there is correlation between two hazards. The evaluated combinational hazard curve of forest fire and strong wind for the instantaneous wind velocity over 80 m/s has extremely small frequency in the range below 10
/year.
Mano, Akihiro; Yamaguchi, Yoshihito; Katsuyama, Jinya; Li, Y.
Proceedings of Asian Symposium on Risk Assessment and Management 2017 (ASRAM 2017) (USB Flash Drive), 12 Pages, 2017/11
As a rational inspection methodology, risk informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) has been widely utilized in in-service inspections of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in several countries. In some of NPPs, an RI-ISI methodology developed by Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) was applied. As a part of RI-ISI process, extent of examination for important piping segments are determined through the comparisons of leak frequencies with its target value based on the industrial piping leak experiences. The leak frequencies for segments are used as a numerical factor for planning examination based on WOG methodology, and can be evaluated through analyses on the basis of probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). In Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), we have developed a PFM analysis code PASCAL-SP for evaluating leak and rupture probabilities or frequencies of welds in piping of light water reactors taking crack initiation and propagation due to aging degradation mechanisms such as fatigue into consideration. Also, evaluation models of probability of crack detection by non-destructive examination considering the crack type, crack depth and performance of examination team is incorporated in PASCAL-SP. In this study, we investigated the applicability of PASCAL-SP into planning of examination considering the effects of repair methodology, performance of inspection team, and examination time. On the basis of analysis results, it was found that examination plans can be reasonably determined by using PASCAL-SP under several conditions, and it was concluded that the PFM is very effective tools in RI-ISI.
